FORECASTING OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR TURKEY: MARKOV CHAINS APROACH

Abstract

Markov chains has been extensively using in economic researches as a stochastic based forcasting tool. In this study, non-institutional unemployment rate of Turkey has been estimated for the year of 2016 via markov chains method. For this purpose, non-institutional unemployment rates between the years of 1996 and 2014, that TÜÝK released has been used. In consequence, it is forecast that the unemployment rate remains above 6,5 points in possibility of 94%, below 9,9 points in possibility of 79%, below 10 points in possibility of 80% and below 11 points in possibility of 88%. In other words, unemployment rate remains at a single digit value in 2016.