THE EFFECT OF CONSUMER LOANS ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Abstract

A significant increase has seen in personal loans with the strongest economy in transition program after the 2001 crisis in banking sector of Turkey's economy. In this context, the effect of consumer loans on the economic growth was investigated using with quarterly data for the period 2004Q4-2014Q2 in Turkey?s economy. The relationship between the variables in the model was investigated by using cointegration and causality methodology in the time series analysis. Between housing loans and consumer loans and also, consumer loans and vehicle loans was found bidirectional causality in the result of the study. Moreover from economic growth to vehicle loans, from housing loans to both consumer loans and credit cards and finally from credit cards to consumer loans was found unidirectional causality.