FORECASTING TURKEY?S ENERGY GAP BY AR(I)MAX TECHNIQUE

Abstract

This study aims to explain and forecast energy gap (kt. of oil equivalent) of Turkey by AR(I)MAX technique due to its forecast accuracy advantages by accounting for autoregressive-moving average and econometric cause effect factors for the period of 2012-2023. The energy gap of Turkey is found dependable on the energy use per capita, openness level, the earlier year?s energy gap (energy import) and time factor positively and shocks, which necessitate researching new energy sources, policies and strategies to reduce the gap in this open economy.