MACROECONOMIC RESPONSES OF EMERGING ECONOMIES TO OIL SHOCKS

Abstract

In this study, the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks in emerging economies that are foreign dependence in oil and in the middle upper income group are examined. China, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey consisting of a sample has been analyzing during the 1999-2019 period and annual data are used in the analyses. In the analysis made with the Panel SVAR method, the reactions of economic growth, inflation rate, budget balance change rate and current account balance change rate to the oil price shock were investigated. The findings show that international oil price shocks trigger macroeconomic shocks in emerging economies and may have deep and lasting effects due to strong interactions between the basic macroeconomic variables.