ESCAPE FROM NATIONAL CURRENCY, VELOCITY SHOCKS AND HYPERINFLATION PROBABILITY IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

In this study, the possibility of hyperinflation in Turkey, which has been experiencing increasing inflationary pressures and a strong currency substitution process after 2017, is empirically investigated. Based on Cagan's (1956) postulates on hyperinflation, the dynamics of the inflation process is analyzed, assuming that negative inflation expectations increase the velocity of money and the flight from the national currency. Under the assumption that the expectations are rational, the parameters of the money demand function, the velocity of money function and the price equation are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimator. The results show that expected inflation affects real money demand negatively and strongly. As inflation rate increases, the flight from national currency or currency substitution accelerates. Due to increasing inflationary pressures, exchange rate movements stimulate the velocity of money more than interest rates. The store of value function of the national currency has decreased significantly. As the process continues at this pace, the probability of hyperinflation will increase over time.