Key Factors Affecting Gold Prices On A Case Study in Turkey

Abstract

In this study, withthe gram goldsellingpriceswhichareformed in Istanbul Gold Exchange, international macro factors which can affect gold price; gold selling price (US $ / ounce), theAmerican Central Bank interest rate (FED), the determination of other oil reference price declares that the BRENT oil price, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index, Turkey macro data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the US Dollar Rate / TL purchase price, and Turkey's gold imports were discussed and nalyzed. The period during which the analysis is carried out; 157 months between 2004: January and 2018: January. Stationary property of the series was determined by the ADF unit root test before analysis was started. The long term relationships between variables and their short-term dynamics are examined in the Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction (VECM) Model framework.According to the results with gram gold selling price of BRENT oil prices, Fed interest rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Index and Turkey's gold imports, and the dollar exchange rate has been found to be associated with long-term CPI. In the error correcting (VECM) model established to elicit a long-term relationship, the error correction term is negative and statistically significant as expected, indicating that it will turn into a long term equilibrium.