STRUCTURE AND DIMENSION OF SEASONALITY IN SUICIDE CASES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

Many researchers have investigated for a long time whether seasonal changes have an effect on the suicide cases. If there is a seasonal effect, they have researched on which periods of the year suicide cases decrease or increase. Before determining the causes of suicide attempts of individuals, investigating the periodic course of suicidal behaviours generally and making a scheme are quite important to detect the underlying factors of suicide. In this context, the purpose of this study is to investigate whether the suicidal behaviours in Turkey, considering the gender issue, include seasonal components or not. The monthly suicide case data from 2000 to 2016 are analysed by advanced time series techniques. While many studies have investigated this issue, there are few studies examining seasonal effects by using advanced time series techniques. In this respect, it is thought that the current study will considerably contribute to the literature. According to the findings, suicide cases include a deterministic seasonal process in Turkey. When the seasonal movements were examined, it was observed that they were stable and very close to each other. In contrast to the theoretical expectation, it was found that the series of suicide cases were additively formed in terms of seasonality. People in Turkey commit suicide mostly during spring and summer seasons. This finding supports the spring-summer summit, which corresponds in the literature. The number of suicide cases reaches the peak in June for women and in July for men. At the beginning and the end of the year, there is a decline in the number of suicide cases.