HISTORY OF FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ANALYSIS OF FACTORS EFECTING INDEXES OF PRECURSOR INDICATORS

Abstract

From the past to the present, many micro and macro-economic crises have occurred. As the number of financial crises that have occurred throughout history has grown and the impact has deepened, economists and governments have come together in the common denominator to try to make the crises predictable and have achieved very important results. Today, crises have become predictable. From this point of view, financial crises have been examined and focused on cause and effect relations. Researches on the grouping and modeling of crises were conducted. The index of leading indicators has been explained and its effect and success has been examined. The independent variables affecting the index of leading indicators were determined; these variables have investigated the effect of leading indicators index and the model of Turkey was founded. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between PMI, API, BTI and consumer confidence indices, which are thought to be effective on compound leading indicators, which are the leading indicators of crisis periods. Both the views of businessmen, consumer opinions and the state of the financial course and the success of the crisis have been tried to determine how successful.