The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Exports in Turkey 1960-2020

Abstract

In our study, the causality relationship between exports and economic growth in Turkey between the years 1960-2020 was examined. First of all, by taking the natural logarithmic values ​​of the series, it was verified whether the series contains a unit root and it was determined that the series were not stationary in their level values, and that the series were stationary in their first difference. In the continuation of the analysis, the most appropriate delay length was checked by establishing a VAR model, and it was determined that the 4th delay was the most appropriate delay based on the AIC criterion. In the next step, it was checked whether there was an autocorrelation problem, it was observed that it provided a normal distribution, and that there was no autocorrelation in the series and that it was normally distributed. At the last stage, VAR Granger Causality /Block Exogeneity WALD test was applied and as a consequence of the analysis, a one-way causality relationship from economic growth to exports was found.