THE EFFECT OF SECTORAL EXPORT ON EMPLOYMENT PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

Abstract

In this study the relationship between exports and employment in the sector based on seven years of 19942017 were examined for Turkey, considered positive relationship between employment and exports and all these cases were evaluated for Turkey. In this context, the effect of sectoral exports on employment in export-driven growth model was investigated. Due to the lack of data between 1980 and 1994, these years were the oretically discussed. In the continuation of the study, the relationship between exports on employment in “Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Mining and Quarrying, Manufacturing Industry, Social, Social and Personal Services, Real Estate and Public Works, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Electric Gas and Water sectors” for seven sectors between 1994-2017 detection is targeted. In this study, panel data analysis was performed and homogeneity test was performed in the first stage and then the independence of the horizontal section was tested. First and second generation stasis tests were performed for stasis. In the later stage, Carrion-i Sivestre et al. It was determined that the variables were stationary for the first order difference. Basher and Westerlund (2009) test using multiple structural fracture cointegration analysis, long-term cointegration coefficient predictions were implemented with the Fully Modified Least Squares method. The long-term relationship between the estimation of long-term coefficients and export and employment was determined. The short-run relationship was tested with the short-term analysis: error correction model and 0.175 effect coefficient was determined between export and employment in the short run and 0.185 in the long run, and 36.4% deviation was eliminated each year in the short run and the two variables came to equilibrium in the long run. In the last phase of the study, causality between the series Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Causality analysis was performed and a oneway causality relationship from export to employment was determined.