THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RATE OF GROWTH OF POPULATION AND PER CAPITA GDP IN TURKEY: 1924-2018

Abstract

In this study, using a vector error correction model, the impact of a change in the rate of growth of population on the per capita GDP has been investigated for Turkey over the period 1924-2018. According to the first finding of the study, there is a long-term relationship between per capita GDP and rate of growth of population during the period 1924-2018. According to the second finding of the study, ceteris paribus, if rate of growth of population increases 0.01 points in Turkey, per capita GDP will increase 2.083 dollars (20-year-lag) or 4.466 dollars (19-year-lag) in the long term. Thus, an increase in the rate of growth of population has a positive impact on living standards in Turkey. In the relevant period, positive effects of population growth dominate negative effects of it in Turkey. According to the third finding of the study, long-term positive effect of rate of growth of population on per capita GDP in Turkey is emerging as a result of a twenty-year-lag or nineteen-year-lag. If an approximate calculation is made, a 0.01 point increase in the rate of growth of population increases per capita GDP by 2,083 dollars/20 = 104 dollars or 4,466 dollars/19 = 235 dollars, annually. The meaning of these findings is discussed in the study.